In this post, I want to provide some analysis on the 2 Class 6A Semi-States, providing keys to win and my prediction on who will move on.

Semi-State 1: Carmel @ Penn

Carmel Keys To Win

1: Special Teams: Know Which Kicker Fits Which Situation on Field Goals/Extra Points

On Carmel’s football team, we have 3 field goal/extra point kickers…Nick Stacy, Connor Coghlan, and Samantha Eastes (who kicked her first extra point at Homestead after returning from an ACL injury).

Samantha Eastes is good for accuracy at short range, but is not afraid to do long range when needed (although accuracy does drop off noticeably). However, despite Eastes now able to participate in football again, the fact she could injure her ACL again if somebody, like a Penn blocker, hits her in the leg means she should only be used once the field goal/extra point unit knows who to contain.

Connor Coghlan is a great distance kicker, but his inaccuracy on field goals is alarming, which means Coghlan should best be used on kickoff unit so that Nick Stacy can avoid injury and save his energy for the State Championship (if Carmel wins).

Stacy is good for distance, but his accuracy drops off dramatically if it’s at long range and it’s breezy. Because forecast calls for 30 mph winds, it’s important Stacy knows which way to kick.

2: Special Teams: Watch the onside kick

Sounds like common knowledge, but too often opposing teams have shown Carmel’s onside kick team is lacking. Last week, Homestead attempted an onside kick, and almost succeeded, but there was an illegal touch and Carmel got the ball. Not to be outdone, Homestead tried once again in the fourth quarter and succeeded. Carmel must watch the onside kick.

3: Defense: Defend against the pass

Sounds like common knowledge, but nearly all of Homestead’s first downs came on pass plays. Defend against the pass and limit the first downs.

4: Offense: Know when to run and NOT pass

That may seem odd, telling a QB not to pass. However, Viktrup’s most favorite targets are Ethan Merriweather and Jalen Walker, but almost every team knows it by now and this is what caused most of Viktrup’s interceptions the past 2 games, because teams are double-teaming or even triple-teaming Merriweather and Walker. So, Viktrup needs to know when to say when…if his receivers are being covered deep and his running back is blocking a blitzer, take the ball and get moving. Remember, the more time they spend playing pass defense is more time not spent ensuring run defense. Viktrup, despite his preference to pass, should not be afraid to run the ball himself if there is a wide open field.

5: Offense: Watts and Watkins should share playing time

Sounds like common knowledge, but Watkins got hurt during a drill at practice on Tuesday, and while right now his status on the game is uncertain, Stephen Watts should be prepared to step in his place. While on the topic, also give CJ Williams some playing time. Williams has been dying for some playing time, and if Watkins is out, he may get his wish.

Penn Keys To Win

1: Defense: Find the exact balance between run and pass

Despite the fact Carmel has plenty of loaded weapons, their output can sometimes be very disappointing. The threat of Merriweather and Walker on the pass, plus Watkins/Watts/Williams on the ground gives Defensive Coordinators nightmares. While it seems the obvious solution is to take turns playing the pass defense and run defense, it’s not always possible. Sometimes, a bit of luck is required, and it was that bit of luck that led to Carmel linebacker Jack Van Remortal getting an interception. So, find a balance between run and pass.

2: Special Teams: Actually make the extra points and field goals

Sounds like the most common knowledge in football, but last year Penn ended up not making an extra point and also missed 2 field goals, so it was their kicker that ended up costing Penn a trip to Lucas Oil. While Offense and Defense may be the main people on the field, as former Carmel Football head coach Coach Wright would say if he were still here, “Special teams matters.”

3: Offense: Don’t let people in the backfield

Sounds like common knowledge, but when Homestead played Carmel, Noah Burks and Jack Van Remortal basically was paying rent in the backfield, as the QB spent most of the game running for his life. Offensive line must be prepared for the various defensive threats.

Prediction: Carmel wins in a nailbiter, 21-20.

Semi-State 2: Avon @ Center Grove

Avon Keys To Win

1: Defense: Defend Titus McCoy

Titus McCoy is Center Grove’s biggest threat. He caused all three TD’s in the regional win against Warren Central and is a big reason why they are undefeated. The success of Center Grove can be traced back to Titus McCoy.

2: Offense: Balance run with pass

Balancing the right amount of run plays with the right amount of pass plays is crucial. You can’t do wholly run or wholly pass, because you get nowhere quickly.

Center Grove Keys To Win

1: Offense: Titus McCoy needs to run inside and out

Titus McCoy is the best running back on the team, in the conference, and arguably the best in the state. To fully achieve his potential, McCoy should not be afraid to run inside as well as outside.

2: Defense: Get to the QB

Sounds like common knowledge, but the more time the QB spends with the ball in the backfield, the more options he has. Get to him right away.

Prediction: Center Grove wins 35-21.