The Oscars have a history of awarding films that may not be the best choice. Sam Watermeier gives his opinion on who should walk away with the gold this year

By Sam Watermeier
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Best Picture
Should Win:
“THE DARK KNIGHT”
This is the kind of movie the Academy should be recognizing: a film that seamlessly blends “popcorn entertainment” with profound social and psychological analysis. Director Christopher Nolan brings authenticity to the material, transcending the comic book genre and placing the “Batman” franchise in the realm of gritty crime dramas such as “Heat” and “Seven.”
Will Win:
“SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE”
This is the exact type of contrivedly uplifting, sentimental movie the Academy drools over.

Best Actor
Should Win:
JOSH BROLIN (“W.”)
Brolin takes one of our least popular presidents and one of the most satirized people in the world, George W. Bush, and surprisingly creates a tragic, sympathetic character. The sympathy comes from the pensive quality Brolin brings to the role, making Bush seem like he is harshly judging himself at all times.
Will Win:
MICKEY ROURKE (“THE WRESTLER”) The Academy loves physical transformations (case in point, “Raging Bull”). People also love tragic underdog characters and Rourke’s Randy “The Ram” Robinson is one of the most memorable ones.

Best Supporting Actor
Should and Will Win:
HEATH LEDGER (“THE DARK KNIGHT”)
In the role of the Joker, the late Ledger created a screen villain for the ages. He is simply, sadly, brilliant. He captures the sadomasochism of the Joker from the “Batman” comics, yet manages to never stray too far from reality with his quirkiness

Best Actress
Should Win:
KATE WINSLET (“THE READER”)
With every performance including this one, Winslet shows maturity and experience beyond her years. She’s only been in the business for a little over a decade yet she already has the demanding screen presence of Meryl Streep.
Will Win:
ANNE HATHAWAY (“RACHEL GETTING MARRIED”)
Hathaway’s naturalistic performance as a quirky drug addict is overwhelmingly the critics’ favorite.

Best Supporting Actress
Should and Will Win:
VIOLA DAVIS (“DOUBT”)
Davis is only on screen for roughly ten minutes yet she leaves a lasting impression with this complex and heartbreaking performance. She also manages to hold her own against the all-powerful Meryl Streep in their one scene together.

Best Director
Should Win:
DAVID FINCHER (“THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON”)
Fincher should be recognized due to the fact that “Button” is a much more ambitious undertaking than “Slumdog Millionaire.” Also, Fincher takes the biggest leap forward out of all the nominees. He dares himself to new depths with “Button,” showing a tender, vulnerable side as a filmmaker. Huge change from such raw, violent directorial efforts as “Fight Club” and “Zodiac.”
Will Win:
DANNY BOYLE (“SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE”

Best Original Screenplay
Should Win: “IN BRUGES”
I still maintain that this film is the best comedy of 2008. There is real truth and poignancy behind the humor. The film never reduces itself to one-liners like most comedies. This is sly, intricate material.
Will Win: “MILK”
It is highly unlikely at this point that this film will win Best Picture, Director, Actor or Supporting Actor. Therefore, this is the only category it really has a chance of sweeping. Plus, this true story of one man’s fight for human rights never feels manipulative or contrived. This film evokes genuine inspiration, unlike “Slumdog Millionaire.”

Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: “THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON”
Epic, adventurous tale that never loses sight of the characters or their emotions. This separates the film from most epics that spread themselves thin when it comes to human emotion and focus on spectacle. Style does not triumph over substance here.
Will Win: “SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE”
I’ll admit that the plot of the film is original and uniquely structured. However, the characters are not given enough depth.